LithuaniaFootballSeason 2026TOPLYGA season simulation
Model estimate FK Kauno Zalgiris — 100% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Kauno Zalgiris | 55 | 57 | 100% |
| FK Suduva Marijampole | 50 | 51.8 | 0% |
| FK Zalgiris | 51 | 51 | 0% |
| FK Transinvest | 49 | 50 | 0% |
| FK Banga | 42 | 43 | 0% |
| Dziugas Telsiai | 42 | 43.5 | 0% |
| FK Panevezys | 35 | 36.7 | 0% |
| FC Hegelmann | 26 | 26.8 | 0% |
| FA Siauliai | 18 | 19.2 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Kauno Zalgiris | 100 | ||||||||
| FK Suduva Marijampole | 50 | 31 | 19 | ||||||
| FK Zalgiris | 38 | 50 | 12 | ||||||
| FK Transinvest | 12 | 19 | 69 | ||||||
| FK Banga | 55 | 45 | |||||||
| Dziugas Telsiai | 45 | 55 | |||||||
| FK Panevezys | 100 | ||||||||
| FC Hegelmann | 100 | ||||||||
| FA Siauliai | 100 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 4 remaining matches · data version 11mwb5.