FootballSeason 26/27Ligue 2 season simulation
Model estimate AS Saint-Etienne — 64% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Promotion | Promotion play-off | Relegation play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Etienne | 28 | 68.3 | 64% | 87% | 13% | 0% | 0% |
| Montpellier | 24 | 63.7 | 24% | 65% | 32% | 0% | 0% |
| Stade Reims | 21 | 58 | 7% | 24% | 60% | <1% | <1% |
| Nancy Lorraine | 25 | 56.9 | 4% | 17% | 62% | <1% | 0% |
| Pau FC | 20 | 49.5 | <1% | 2% | 30% | 1% | <1% |
| Dijon | 18 | 49.1 | <1% | 2% | 29% | 1% | <1% |
| Red Star FC | 17 | 47.5 | <1% | 1% | 19% | 1% | 1% |
| Annecy FC | 16 | 46.2 | <1% | 1% | 15% | 2% | 2% |
| Metz | 17 | 45.6 | <1% | <1% | 14% | 2% | 2% |
| En Avant Guingamp | 14 | 44.2 | <1% | <1% | 9% | 4% | 3% |
| Nantes | 12 | 42.6 | <1% | <1% | 6% | 5% | 5% |
| USL Dunkerque | 15 | 41.5 | 0% | <1% | 4% | 7% | 8% |
| Rodez | 13 | 41.5 | 0% | <1% | 4% | 7% | 9% |
| Clermont Foot | 11 | 38.5 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 12% | 16% |
| US Boulogne | 13 | 38.4 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 12% | 16% |
| Grenoble Foot 38 | 11 | 35.2 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 16% | 39% |
| Sochaux Montbeliard | 11 | 34.6 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 16% | 41% |
| Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC | 9 | 32.5 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 14% | 57% |
TitlePromotionPromotion play-offRelegation play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Etienne | 64 | 23 | 9 | 3 | ||||||||||||||
| Montpellier | 24 | 41 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Stade Reims | 7 | 17 | 28 | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Nancy Lorraine | 4 | 13 | 23 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Pau FC | 2 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Dijon | 2 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Red Star FC | 3 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Annecy FC | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Metz | 2 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| En Avant Guingamp | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Nantes | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||
| USL Dunkerque | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | |||
| Rodez | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| Clermont Foot | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 7 | ||||
| US Boulogne | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 7 | |||||
| Grenoble Foot 38 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 19 | |||||||
| Sochaux Montbeliard | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 20 | 21 | ||||||||
| Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 36 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 198 remaining matches · data version qq2yew. 198 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.