EnglandFootballSeason 26/27League One season simulation
Model estimate Huddersfield Town — 28% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Promotion | Promotion play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Town | 29 | 83.4 | 28% | 48% | 41% | 0% |
| Stockport County | 26 | 82.4 | 23% | 42% | 44% | 0% |
| Oxford United | 26 | 81.6 | 19% | 37% | 46% | 0% |
| Bradford City | 22 | 79.6 | 11% | 24% | 50% | 0% |
| Luton Town | 24 | 78.5 | 10% | 21% | 49% | 0% |
| Reading | 22 | 74.2 | 3% | 9% | 40% | 0% |
| Plymouth Argyle | 23 | 73.7 | 3% | 8% | 35% | 0% |
| Stevenage | 16 | 70.7 | 1% | 4% | 25% | <1% |
| Leicester City | 19 | 70.4 | 1% | 3% | 23% | <1% |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 20 | 69.6 | 1% | 3% | 21% | <1% |
| Leyton Orient | 17 | 66 | <1% | 1% | 10% | <1% |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 18 | 64.8 | <1% | 1% | 7% | 1% |
| Notts County | 14 | 63 | <1% | <1% | 5% | 1% |
| Cambridge United | 21 | 61.6 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 1% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 18 | 59.7 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 3% |
| Mansfield Town | 19 | 57 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% |
| Burton Albion | 17 | 54.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 9% |
| Barnsley | 9 | 49.4 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 32% |
| Doncaster Rovers | 12 | 48.3 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 37% |
| Wigan Athletic | 11 | 47.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 39% |
| Peterborough United | 10 | 46.3 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 49% |
| Blackpool | 12 | 45.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 55% |
| AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 43.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 68% |
| Bromley FC | 9 | 32.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 98% |
TitlePromotionPromotion play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Town | 28 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Stockport County | 23 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Oxford United | 19 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Bradford City | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Luton Town | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Reading | 3 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Plymouth Argyle | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Stevenage | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Leicester City | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Sheffield Wednesday | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Leyton Orient | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Wycombe Wanderers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Notts County | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Cambridge United | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||
| Milton Keynes Dons | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||
| Mansfield Town | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||
| Burton Albion | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||
| Barnsley | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Doncaster Rovers | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Wigan Athletic | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Peterborough United | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| Blackpool | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 5 | |||||||||||||
| AFC Wimbledon | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 8 | |||||||||||||||
| Bromley FC | 2 | 5 | 13 | 77 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 394 remaining matches · data version 14h6jv. 382 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.