FootballSeason 26/27LaLiga season simulation
Model estimate Barcelona — 78% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Europa League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 33 | 94.9 | 78% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Real Madrid | 30 | 89.2 | 21% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Atletico Madrid | 28 | 77.6 | 1% | 100% | <1% | <1% | 0% | 0% |
| Real Betis | 26 | 69.5 | <1% | 93% | 5% | 1% | <1% | 0% |
| Real Sociedad | 22 | 62.7 | 0% | 70% | 16% | 7% | 1% | 0% |
| Villarreal | 15 | 53.8 | 0% | 14% | 23% | 18% | 7% | <1% |
| Athletic Bilbao | 16 | 53 | 0% | 12% | 21% | 18% | 8% | <1% |
| Sevilla | 18 | 47.9 | 0% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 2% |
| Deportivo Alaves | 13 | 47.2 | 0% | 2% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 3% |
| Levante | 11 | 46.8 | 0% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 4% |
| Deportivo de A Coruna | 15 | 46.5 | 0% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 3% |
| Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 45.1 | 0% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 10% | 6% |
| Celta de Vigo | 13 | 44.7 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 6% |
| Elche CF | 10 | 44.2 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 8% |
| Espanyol | 12 | 41.6 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 14% |
| Racing Santander | 14 | 40 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 25% |
| Valencia | 9 | 37.2 | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 40% |
| Osasuna | 12 | 36 | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 50% |
| Getafe | 12 | 35.7 | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 51% |
| Malaga CF | 5 | 28.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% | 88% |
TitleChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 78 | 21 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Real Madrid | 21 | 71 | 8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Atletico Madrid | 8 | 72 | 17 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Real Betis | 17 | 57 | 19 | 5 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Real Sociedad | 3 | 19 | 48 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| Villarreal | 3 | 12 | 23 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 10 | 21 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||
| Sevilla | 2 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| Deportivo Alaves | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||||||
| Levante | 2 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Deportivo de A Coruna | 1 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||||||
| Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||||
| Celta de Vigo | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||||||
| Elche CF | 2 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||||||
| Espanyol | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||||
| Racing Santander | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 4 | ||||||
| Valencia | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 8 | ||||||||
| Osasuna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 20 | 12 | |||||||||
| Getafe | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 21 | 12 | |||||||||
| Malaga CF | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 59 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 261 remaining matches · data version 16m5nt. 261 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.