IsraelFootballSeason 26/27Premier League season simulation
Model estimate Maccabi Tel Aviv FC — 67% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Tel Aviv FC | 24 | 59.2 | 67% |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | 25 | 55.9 | 26% |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 22 | 51 | 6% |
| Beitar Jerusalem | 18 | 46.4 | 1% |
| Maccabi Haifa | 18 | 42.4 | <1% |
| Maccabi Netanya | 16 | 38.4 | <1% |
| Hapoel Haifa FC | 12 | 32.7 | 0% |
| Bnei Sakhnin | 13 | 28.7 | 0% |
| Hapoel Jerusalem FC | 9 | 28.4 | 0% |
| Maccabi Petach Tikva | 10 | 27.1 | 0% |
| Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 7 | 26.4 | 0% |
| Ironi Tiberias FC | 10 | 26.1 | 0% |
| Hapoel Ramat Gan Givatayim FC | 6 | 21.4 | 0% |
| Hapoel Petach Tikva | 6 | 19.8 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Tel Aviv FC | 67 | 25 | 7 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | 26 | 48 | 19 | 5 | ||||||||||
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 6 | 20 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 2 | ||||||||
| Beitar Jerusalem | 1 | 5 | 20 | 41 | 22 | 8 | 2 | |||||||
| Maccabi Haifa | 1 | 7 | 22 | 38 | 22 | 7 | 2 | |||||||
| Maccabi Netanya | 2 | 8 | 24 | 39 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| Hapoel Haifa FC | 1 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Bnei Sakhnin | 4 | 13 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||||
| Hapoel Jerusalem FC | 4 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 3 | |||||
| Maccabi Petach Tikva | 3 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 10 | 5 | |||||
| Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 2 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 11 | 6 | |||||
| Ironi Tiberias FC | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 6 | |||||
| Hapoel Ramat Gan Givatayim FC | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 28 | 32 | |||||||
| Hapoel Petach Tikva | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 26 | 47 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 112 remaining matches · data version wlewzt. 112 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.