FootballSeason 26/27First Division season simulation
Model estimate Resources Capital FC — 43% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resources Capital FC | 17 | 55.2 | 43% |
| WSE | 17 | 55.3 | 38% |
| Yuen Long FC | 19 | 49.6 | 10% |
| South China AA | 16 | 48.7 | 6% |
| Central and Western District R&SA | 12 | 45.9 | 3% |
| Tung Sing | 13 | 43.9 | 1% |
| Citizen AA | 14 | 37.8 | <1% |
| Hoi King | 12 | 37.1 | <1% |
| Supreme FC | 7 | 36.6 | 0% |
| Sham Shui Po SA | 7 | 29.1 | 0% |
| Leaper FC | 2 | 26.5 | <1% |
| Kui Tan SC | 4 | 17.4 | 0% |
| 3 Sing FC | 3 | 15.5 | 0% |
| Lucky Mile | 4 | 12.9 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resources Capital FC | 43 | 29 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||
| WSE | 38 | 32 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||||||||
| Yuen Long FC | 10 | 16 | 22 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 2 | ||||||
| South China AA | 6 | 12 | 22 | 22 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||||||
| Central and Western District R&SA | 3 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 22 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||||
| Tung Sing | 3 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||||
| Citizen AA | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 24 | 20 | 9 | 2 | |||||
| Hoi King | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 24 | 22 | 10 | 3 | |||||
| Supreme FC | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 23 | 24 | 13 | 4 | ||||||
| Sham Shui Po SA | 3 | 7 | 16 | 38 | 30 | 4 | ||||||||
| Leaper FC | 2 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 44 | 10 | 3 | |||||||
| Kui Tan SC | 1 | 10 | 44 | 29 | 16 | |||||||||
| 3 Sing FC | 5 | 28 | 37 | 30 | ||||||||||
| Lucky Mile | 2 | 13 | 31 | 54 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 130 remaining matches · data version 1969ws. 130 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.