EnglandFootballSeason 26/27FA WSL 2 season simulation
Model estimate Newcastle United (Wom) — 44% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United (Wom) | 16 | 44.8 | 44% |
| Ipswich Town LFC (Wom) | 14 | 44.6 | 39% |
| Sunderland (Wom) | 13 | 40.5 | 13% |
| Southampton FC (Wom) | 7 | 35.3 | 2% |
| Nottingham Forest LFC (Wom) | 10 | 34.8 | 1% |
| Bristol City LFC (Wom) | 10 | 33.2 | 1% |
| Leicester City (Wom) | 7 | 27.4 | <1% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers (Wom) | 7 | 24.2 | 0% |
| Sheffield United (Wom) | 6 | 23.3 | 0% |
| Watford (Wom) | 6 | 22.1 | <1% |
| Burnley (Wom) | 2 | 19.2 | 0% |
| Durham FC (Wom) | 0 | 13.2 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United (Wom) | 44 | 30 | 16 | 7 | 3 | |||||||
| Ipswich Town LFC (Wom) | 39 | 32 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| Sunderland (Wom) | 13 | 23 | 30 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||||
| Southampton FC (Wom) | 2 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Nottingham Forest LFC (Wom) | 1 | 5 | 13 | 21 | 24 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| Bristol City LFC (Wom) | 1 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 22 | 24 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Leicester City (Wom) | 4 | 8 | 15 | 26 | 20 | 14 | 9 | 4 | ||||
| Wolverhampton Wanderers (Wom) | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 21 | 22 | 17 | 11 | 3 | |||
| Sheffield United (Wom) | 2 | 5 | 12 | 20 | 22 | 20 | 15 | 3 | ||||
| Watford (Wom) | 1 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 20 | 24 | 20 | 5 | ||||
| Burnley (Wom) | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 23 | 34 | 15 | |||||
| Durham FC (Wom) | 2 | 6 | 17 | 73 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 96 remaining matches · data version 15ktee. 94 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.