EnglandFootballSeason 26/27FA WSL 2 season simulation
Model estimate Newcastle United (Wom) — 59% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United (Wom) | 19 | 46.3 | 59% |
| Sunderland (Wom) | 16 | 42.3 | 20% |
| Ipswich Town LFC (Wom) | 14 | 39.7 | 9% |
| Bristol City LFC (Wom) | 13 | 37.7 | 4% |
| Nottingham Forest LFC (Wom) | 13 | 37.5 | 4% |
| Southampton FC (Wom) | 10 | 37 | 4% |
| Watford (Wom) | 9 | 25.3 | <1% |
| Leicester City (Wom) | 7 | 24.6 | 0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers (Wom) | 7 | 22.4 | 0% |
| Sheffield United (Wom) | 6 | 21.5 | 0% |
| Burnley (Wom) | 2 | 18.1 | 0% |
| Durham FC (Wom) | 0 | 11.9 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United (Wom) | 59 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| Sunderland (Wom) | 20 | 29 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 5 | ||||||
| Ipswich Town LFC (Wom) | 9 | 18 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 2 | |||||
| Bristol City LFC (Wom) | 4 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 21 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| Nottingham Forest LFC (Wom) | 4 | 11 | 16 | 20 | 22 | 21 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| Southampton FC (Wom) | 4 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 22 | 22 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| Watford (Wom) | 2 | 6 | 29 | 25 | 19 | 13 | 6 | |||||
| Leicester City (Wom) | 1 | 5 | 25 | 26 | 19 | 14 | 7 | |||||
| Wolverhampton Wanderers (Wom) | 2 | 15 | 19 | 23 | 22 | 15 | 3 | |||||
| Sheffield United (Wom) | 2 | 11 | 18 | 22 | 25 | 19 | 3 | |||||
| Burnley (Wom) | 4 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 38 | 14 | ||||||
| Durham FC (Wom) | 2 | 5 | 15 | 78 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 90 remaining matches · data version h1kfta. 90 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.