BoliviaFootballSeason 2026LFPB season simulation
Model estimate Club Bolivar — 72% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Bolivar | 60 | 68.9 | 72% |
| Always Ready | 57 | 65.9 | 28% |
| Club The Strongest | 48 | 56.7 | 0% |
| CD Oriente Petrolero | 41 | 49 | 0% |
| Club Real Potosi | 40 | 48.2 | 0% |
| Club Aurora Cochabamba | 36 | 43 | 0% |
| CA Nacional Potosi | 33 | 42 | 0% |
| Guabira Montero | 33 | 39.8 | 0% |
| Real Oruro | 31 | 38 | 0% |
| Club Blooming | 31 | 36.2 | 0% |
| Independiente Petrolero | 30 | 36.3 | 0% |
| CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 27 | 31.8 | 0% |
| CD Real Tomayapo | 23 | 28.4 | 0% |
| FC Universitario de Vinto | 22 | 27.5 | 0% |
| Club ABB | 20 | 26.3 | 0% |
| CD Gualberto Villarroel San Jose | 20 | 25 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Bolivar | 72 | 28 | ||||||||||||||
| Always Ready | 28 | 71 | ||||||||||||||
| Club The Strongest | 94 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
| CD Oriente Petrolero | 3 | 50 | 39 | 6 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Club Real Potosi | 2 | 42 | 45 | 8 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Club Aurora Cochabamba | 2 | 8 | 40 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||
| CA Nacional Potosi | 1 | 6 | 32 | 31 | 18 | 7 | 3 | |||||||||
| Guabira Montero | 8 | 19 | 30 | 21 | 13 | 7 | ||||||||||
| Real Oruro | 3 | 9 | 18 | 25 | 22 | 18 | 4 | |||||||||
| Club Blooming | 1 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 26 | 8 | 1 | ||||||||
| Independiente Petrolero | 1 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 24 | 31 | 8 | 1 | ||||||||
| CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 1 | 4 | 12 | 46 | 24 | 9 | 3 | |||||||||
| CD Real Tomayapo | 2 | 14 | 26 | 24 | 20 | 11 | ||||||||||
| FC Universitario de Vinto | 2 | 10 | 23 | 27 | 21 | 16 | ||||||||||
| Club ABB | 6 | 15 | 23 | 29 | 26 | |||||||||||
| CD Gualberto Villarroel San Jose | 3 | 8 | 16 | 27 | 46 |
Model estimate from 20,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 40 remaining matches · data version 1cdw5l. 37 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.