FootballSeason 26/272. Liga season simulation
Model estimate FC Blau Weiss Linz — 100% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Blau Weiss Linz | 31 | 74.8 | 100% |
| First Vienna FC | 26 | 54.9 | <1% |
| FK Austria Wien II | 23 | 50 | <1% |
| FC Liefering | 20 | 46 | <1% |
| SV Austria Salzburg | 19 | 45.8 | 0% |
| FC Wacker Innsbruck | 17 | 45.3 | 0% |
| VfB Admira Wacker Modling | 19 | 45.1 | <1% |
| SKU Amstetten | 17 | 40.9 | 0% |
| SKN St. Polten | 15 | 40.8 | 0% |
| ASK Voitsberg | 15 | 38.3 | 0% |
| Floridsdorfer AC | 14 | 36.6 | 0% |
| Schwarz-Weis Bregenz | 16 | 35.6 | 0% |
| SK Sturm Graz II | 14 | 33.1 | 0% |
| Kapfenberger SV | 8 | 27.7 | 0% |
| WSC Hertha Wels | 8 | 26 | 0% |
| SK Rapid Wien II | 8 | 25.8 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Blau Weiss Linz | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| First Vienna FC | 57 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||||
| FK Austria Wien II | 18 | 26 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| FC Liefering | 6 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| SV Austria Salzburg | 6 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| FC Wacker Innsbruck | 5 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| VfB Admira Wacker Modling | 4 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||||
| SKU Amstetten | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| SKN St. Polten | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| ASK Voitsberg | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| Floridsdorfer AC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| Schwarz-Weis Bregenz | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| SK Sturm Graz II | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 3 | |||||
| Kapfenberger SV | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 24 | 24 | 22 | ||||||||
| WSC Hertha Wels | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | 36 | |||||||||
| SK Rapid Wien II | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 29 | 36 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 144 remaining matches · data version 12v4b5. 144 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.