Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: LKS Lodz won 0-1.
Story
Warta Poznan vs LKS Lodz: the story of the match
Half time: 0-0.
85' — LKS Lodz took the lead: 0-1. It came in the closing minutes. LKS Lodz won 0-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Warta PoznanDrawLKS Lodz
Pre-match model estimate: Warta Poznan 39%, draw 25%, LKS Lodz 36%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Warta Poznan win in 39% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and LKS Lodz win 36%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 58%. About 10.4 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 14%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Late on, in the 85th minute, LKS Lodz took the lead.
What the numbers say
Warta Poznan had 5 shots (4 on target) to LKS Lodz's 5 (2). Corners finished 0-10. Dangerous attacks: 106 for LKS Lodz, 39 for Warta Poznan.
The bigger picture
Warta Poznan slip to 8th (18 points), having started the day 6th. LKS Lodz climb from 7th to 4th on 21 points. Warta Poznan's run of 5 matches with a goal comes to an end.
1. Liga
