VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid: the story of the match
36' — VfB Stuttgart took the lead: 1-0. Jamie Leweling scored it. Half time: 1-0.
47' — Atletico Madrid equalised: 1-1. Julián Álvarez scored it. 64' — Morten Hjulmand of Atletico Madrid was sent off. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
VfB StuttgartDrawAtletico Madrid
Pre-match model estimate: VfB Stuttgart 51%, draw 20%, Atletico Madrid 29%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): VfB Stuttgart win in 51% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and Atletico Madrid win 29%. Average goals 3.7; the most likely score is 2-1 (9%); both teams score in 69%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
On target it was 5-3, from 10 and 6 attempts respectively. VfB Stuttgart won 9 corners, Atletico Madrid 4. VfB Stuttgart produced 51 dangerous attacks to Atletico Madrid's 24.
What it means
VfB Stuttgart drop from 4th to 6th on 7 points. Atletico Madrid slip to 16th (4 points), having started the day 15th. The result ends Atletico Madrid's run of 6 straight wins.
Coming up
Next up for VfB Stuttgart: away at Paderborn 07 on Wednesday 28 October. Atletico Madrid's next match is away to Levante on 31 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.