3' — Ajax Amsterdam took the lead: 0-1. Tolu Arokodare scored it. Half time: 0-1.
66' — Ajax Amsterdam extended the lead: 0-2. Rayane Bounida scored it. 68' — Twente pulled one back: 1-2. An own goal by Dies Janse. 90' — Twente equalised: 2-2. It came in the closing minutes. The match ended 2-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
TwenteDrawAjax Amsterdam
Pre-match model estimate: Twente 53%, draw 21%, Ajax Amsterdam 26%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Twente win in 53% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Ajax Amsterdam win 26%. Average goals 3.5; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 66%. About 9.8 corners on average. About 3.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
It finished 2-2 between Twente and Ajax Amsterdam at De Grolsch Veste. It was 0-1 at half-time.
How the match unfolded
Ajax Amsterdam took the lead on 3 minutes thanks to Tolu Arokodare, set up by Oscar Gloukh. Ajax Amsterdam led 1-0 at the break.
Ajax Amsterdam extended their lead to 2-0 on 66 minutes thanks to Rayane Bounida, set up by Oscar Gloukh. Twente pulled one back to make it 1-2 in the 68th minute: an own goal from Dies Janse. Late on, in the 90th minute, Twente drew level at 2-2. Ajax Amsterdam had a goal ruled out.
The statistics
Twente had 19 shots (6 on target) to Ajax Amsterdam's 3 (2). Corners finished 9-2. Ajax Amsterdam's goalkeeper made 17 saves. Dangerous attacks: 204 for Twente, 91 for Ajax Amsterdam.
The bigger picture
Twente remain 4th, now with 24 points. Ajax Amsterdam slip to 3rd (25 points), having started the day 2nd. Twente's winning streak stops at 4. The result ends Ajax Amsterdam's run of 5 straight wins. Across 11 meetings in our records: 3 wins for Twente, 5 wins for Ajax Amsterdam and 3 draws.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Eredivisie
