Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
O Elvas CAD beat Sport Benfica Castelo Branco 3-1 in Campeonato de Portugal.
Match decisions & VAR
88'Red cardSport Benfica Castelo BrancoDecision
90'Penalty awardedO Elvas CADDecision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: O Elvas CAD won 1-3.
Story
Sport Benfica Castelo Branco vs O Elvas CAD: the story of the match
20' — O Elvas CAD took the lead: 0-1. Half time: 0-1.
59' — O Elvas CAD extended the lead: 0-2. 63' — Sport Benfica Castelo Branco pulled one back: 1-2. 88' — Sport Benfica Castelo Branco had a player sent off. 90' — O Elvas CAD extended the lead: 1-3. It came in the closing minutes. O Elvas CAD won 1-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Sport Benfica Castelo BrancoDrawO Elvas CAD
Pre-match model estimate: Sport Benfica Castelo Branco 26%, draw 26%, O Elvas CAD 48%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Sport Benfica Castelo Branco win in 26% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and O Elvas CAD win 48%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 0-1 (12%); both teams score in 48%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Sport Benfica Castelo Branco – O Elvas CAD match report
O Elvas CAD took the lead on 20 minutes. Half-time: 0-1, O Elvas CAD in front.
O Elvas CAD extended their lead to 2-0 on 59 minutes. Just 4 minutes later (63') Sport Benfica Castelo Branco pulled one back to make it 1-2. Sport Benfica Castelo Branco had a player sent off on 88 minutes. O Elvas CAD extended their lead to 3-1 on 90 minutes.
What the numbers say
Sport Benfica Castelo Branco had 17 shots (7 on target) to O Elvas CAD's 3 (2). Sport Benfica Castelo Branco won 2 corners, O Elvas CAD 9. 7 saves came from the O Elvas CAD goalkeeper.
What the result means
It is now 5 straight defeats for Sport Benfica Castelo Branco.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
