This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Shortan GuzorPFK Aral
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min610
Last 15 min270
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2 (no dangerous-attack data for this match).
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Shortan Guzor win in 44% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and PFK Aral win 31%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 56%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
