This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Shakhtar Donetsk win in 73% of the simulated matches, 17% end level and Zorya Luhansk win 10%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 2-0 (12%); both teams score in 48%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Corners finished 11-4. Dangerous attacks: 48 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 20 for Zorya Luhansk.
What it means
Shakhtar Donetsk slip to 2nd (25 points), having started the day 1st. Zorya Luhansk remain 7th, now with 15 points. Zorya Luhansk's winning streak stops at 3. Across 11 meetings in our records: 8 wins for Shakhtar Donetsk and 3 draws.
Next fixtures
Shakhtar Donetsk's next match is at home against FC Obolon Kyiv on 30 October. Zorya Luhansk host Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih next, on 29 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Premier League
