This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Schalke 04 win in 25% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and RB Leipzig win 50%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 50%. About 10.2 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 20%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The officials disallowed a RB Leipzig goal on 4 minutes. RB Leipzig took the lead in the 37th minute: Antonio Nusa from the penalty spot. It was Schalke 04 0-1 RB Leipzig at half-time.
RB Leipzig extended their lead to 2-0 on 78 minutes thanks to Rômulo, set up by Antonio Nusa. RB Leipzig had a goal ruled out.
The statistics
Schalke 04 had 8 shots (2 on target) to RB Leipzig's 19 (12). Corners finished 3-7. Dangerous attacks: 66 for RB Leipzig, 40 for Schalke 04.
The bigger picture
The wait for a win goes on for Schalke 04: 5 matches now. RB Leipzig have now scored in 7 consecutive matches. RB Leipzig beat Schalke 04 for the first time since 2023.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Bundesliga
