Rochdale vs Doncaster Rovers: the story of the match
15' — Rochdale took the lead: 1-0. Ian Henderson scored it. Half time: 1-0.
54' — Doncaster Rovers equalised: 1-1. Alfie May scored it. 63' — Doncaster Rovers completed the turnaround: 1-2. Brandon Hanlan scored it. 88' — Doncaster Rovers extended the lead: 1-3. Owen Bailey scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — Doncaster Rovers extended the lead: 1-4. It came in the closing minutes. Doncaster Rovers won 1-4. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
RochdaleDrawDoncaster Rovers
Pre-match model estimate: Rochdale 28%, draw 22%, Doncaster Rovers 50%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Rochdale win in 28% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and Doncaster Rovers win 50%. Average goals 3.4; the most likely score is 1-2 (9%); both teams score in 66%. About 10.3 corners on average. About 3.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Ian Henderson opened the scoring for Rochdale after 15 minutes. It was Rochdale 1-0 Doncaster Rovers at half-time.
Doncaster Rovers drew level at 1-1 in the 54th minute: Alfie May. Doncaster Rovers completed the turnaround at 2-1 in the 63rd minute: Brandon Hanlan. Late on, in the 88th minute, Doncaster Rovers extended their lead to 3-1 through Owen Bailey. Late on, in the 90th minute, Doncaster Rovers extended their lead to 4-1.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 7-10, 1-8 on target. Corners finished 8-5. Dangerous attacks: 53 for Doncaster Rovers, 37 for Rochdale.
The bigger picture
The wait for a win goes on for Rochdale: 7 matches now. Doncaster Rovers have now scored in 4 consecutive matches. Doncaster Rovers beat Rochdale for the first time since 2022.
Coming up
Rochdale's next match is at home against York City FC on 14 November. Doncaster Rovers host Leyton Orient next, on 14 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
EFL Trophy, Northern Group F
