Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
Pitbulls FC beat AD Carmelita 2-1 in Segunda Division.
Match decisions & VAR
4'Penalty awardedAD CarmelitaDecision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Squad status
Line-ups not announced yet. Official line-ups are usually announced about 1 hour before kick-off.
No injured or suspended players reported for this match (checked ).
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Pitbulls FC won 2-1.
Story
Pitbulls FC vs AD Carmelita: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 4' — AD Carmelita took the lead: 0-1. Half time: 0-1.
46' — Pitbulls FC equalised: 1-1. 70' — Pitbulls FC completed the turnaround: 2-1. After 46' the momentum swung to Pitbulls FC. After 76' the momentum swung to AD Carmelita. Pitbulls FC won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Pitbulls FCDrawAD Carmelita
Pre-match model estimate: Pitbulls FC 45%, draw 24%, AD Carmelita 31%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Pitbulls FCAD Carmelita
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min3139
Last 15 min2251
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Pitbulls FC win in 45% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and AD Carmelita win 31%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 57%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
AD Carmelita took the lead on 4 minutes. Half-time: 0-1, AD Carmelita in front.
Pitbulls FC drew level at 1-1 on 46 minutes. From the 46th minute the pressure shifted towards Pitbulls FC. Pitbulls FC completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 70 minutes. AD Carmelita took over after the 76th minute, pinning Pitbulls FC back.
The statistics
Corners finished 5-5.
What it means
Pitbulls FC sit 2nd on 23 points in the standings. In the table, AD Carmelita are 5th with 16 points. A 5-game wait for victory is over for Pitbulls FC.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
