This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Penya Encarnada win in 28% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and CF Esperanca win 47%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 54%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
CF Esperanca took the lead on 7 minutes. Penya Encarnada were a man down from the 40th minute. CF Esperanca led 1-0 at the break.
Penya Encarnada had a goal ruled out in the 60th minute. The officials disallowed a Penya Encarnada goal on 91 minutes.
The statistics
On target it was 1-2, from 2 and 3 attempts respectively.
The bigger picture
Penya Encarnada drop from 7th to 8th on 5 points. The result lifts CF Esperanca to 5th with 8 points, up from 6th. CF Esperanca have now scored in 9 consecutive matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
