Paris Saint-Germain vs ES Troyes: the story of the match
39' — Paris Saint-Germain took the lead: 1-0. Illia Zabarnyi scored it. Half time: 1-0.
Paris Saint-Germain won 1-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Paris Saint-GermainDrawES Troyes
Pre-match model estimate: Paris Saint-Germain 87%, draw 9%, ES Troyes 4%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Paris Saint-Germain win in 87% of the simulated matches, 9% end level and ES Troyes win 4%. Average goals 3.9; the most likely score is 3-0 (12%); both teams score in 44%. About 8.8 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Paris Saint-Germain took the lead on 39 minutes thanks to Illia Zabarnyi, set up by Senny Mayulu. Half-time: 1-0, Paris Saint-Germain in front.
The officials disallowed a ES Troyes goal on 85 minutes.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 10-4, 7-2 on target. Corners finished 5-1. Dangerous attacks: 66 for Paris Saint-Germain, 28 for ES Troyes.
What the result means
Paris Saint-Germain remain 1st, now with 23 points. ES Troyes slip to 17th (8 points), having started the day 16th. That is 11 straight wins for Paris Saint-Germain. Paris Saint-Germain beat ES Troyes for the first time since 2023.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
