Oldham Athletic vs Sheffield Wednesday: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0.
66' — Oldham Athletic took the lead: 1-0. Calum Kavanagh scored it. 76' — Sheffield Wednesday equalised: 1-1. Davis Kellior-Dunn scored it. 110' — Oldham Athletic went back in front: 2-1. Will Sutton scored it. It came in the closing minutes. After 76' the momentum swung to Sheffield Wednesday. Oldham Athletic won 2-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Oldham AthleticSheffield Wednesday
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min022
Last 15 min3415
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Oldham Athletic win in 27% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and Sheffield Wednesday win 50%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 56%. About 9.9 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 13%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Oldham Athletic – Sheffield Wednesday match report
Oldham Athletic had a goal ruled out in the 11th minute. The first half ended 0-0.
Oldham Athletic took the lead on 66 minutes thanks to Calum Kavanagh, set up by Mike Fondop-Talom. Sheffield Wednesday drew level at 1-1 on 76 minutes thanks to Davis Kellior-Dunn, set up by Sean Fusire. Sheffield Wednesday took over after the 76th minute, pinning Oldham Athletic back. Will Sutton put Oldham Athletic 2-1 ahead after 110 minutes.
Match statistics
On target it was 6-6, from 7 and 6 attempts respectively. Oldham Athletic won 2 corners, Sheffield Wednesday 8.
What it means
Sheffield Wednesday have now gone 5 matches without a win. It is Oldham Athletic's first win against Sheffield Wednesday since 2004.
Next fixtures
Next up for Oldham Athletic: away at Barnsley on Wednesday 11 November. Sheffield Wednesday's next match is at home against Accrington Stanley on 11 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
FA Cup
