OFK Beograd vs FK Crvena Zvezda: the story of the match
45' — FK Crvena Zvezda took the lead: 0-1. A. Katai scored it. Half time: 0-1.
FK Crvena Zvezda won 0-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
OFK BeogradDrawFK Crvena Zvezda
Pre-match model estimate: OFK Beograd 13%, draw 17%, FK Crvena Zvezda 70%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): OFK Beograd win in 13% of the simulated matches, 17% end level and FK Crvena Zvezda win 70%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 0-2 (10%); both teams score in 55%. About 9.4 corners on average. About 4.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 20%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The officials disallowed a FK Crvena Zvezda goal on 26 minutes. FK Crvena Zvezda took the lead on 45 minutes thanks to A. Katai, set up by L. Loizou. FK Crvena Zvezda led 1-0 at the break.
What the numbers say
On target it was 3-5, from 4 and 8 attempts respectively. Corners finished 6-10. OFK Beograd's goalkeeper made 5 saves. Dangerous attacks: 175 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 132 for OFK Beograd.
What the result means
OFK Beograd remain 11th, now with 11 points. FK Crvena Zvezda stay 1st on 37 points. The wait for a win goes on for OFK Beograd: 7 matches now. FK Crvena Zvezda have now scored in 8 consecutive matches.
Coming up
OFK Beograd's next match is away to OFK Vrsac on 28 October. FK Crvena Zvezda visit FK Jedinstvo Ub next, on 28 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Super Liga
