NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo: the story of the match
6' — NK Varazdin took the lead: 1-0. Iuri Tavares scored it. Half time: 1-0.
66' — NK Slaven Belupo equalised: 1-1. J. Mitrović scored it. 70' — NK Slaven Belupo completed the turnaround: 1-2. L. Banovec scored it. 79' — I. Nestorovski of NK Slaven Belupo was sent off. NK Slaven Belupo won 1-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
NK VarazdinDrawNK Slaven Belupo
Pre-match model estimate: NK Varazdin 58%, draw 23%, NK Slaven Belupo 19%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): NK Varazdin win in 58% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and NK Slaven Belupo win 19%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 55%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
NK Varazdin took the lead on 6 minutes thanks to Iuri Tavares. It was NK Varazdin 1-0 NK Slaven Belupo at half-time.
J. Mitrović equalised for NK Slaven Belupo at 1-1 after 66 minutes, set up by I. Nestorovski. L. Banovec turned the game around for NK Slaven Belupo at 2-1 after 70 minutes, set up by I. Nestorovski. NK Slaven Belupo had a player sent off on 79 minutes: I. Nestorovski. The officials disallowed a NK Varazdin goal on 81 minutes. NK Varazdin had a goal ruled out in the 81st minute.
NK Slaven Belupo had a goal ruled out. NK Slaven Belupo had a goal ruled out.
What the numbers say
On target it was 4-5, from 7 and 8 attempts respectively. Dangerous attacks: 61 for NK Varazdin, 42 for NK Slaven Belupo.
What the result means
NK Varazdin remain 3rd, now with 18 points. NK Slaven Belupo climb from 8th to 7th on 13 points. NK Slaven Belupo have now scored in 4 consecutive matches.
Coming up
NK Varazdin host NK Lokomotiva Zagreb next, on 28 October. Next up for NK Slaven Belupo: home to NK Istra 1961 on Friday 30 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
HNL
