NK Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg: the story of the match
9' — Red Bull Salzburg took the lead: 0-1. Sota Kitano scored it. Half time: 0-1.
46' — Red Bull Salzburg extended the lead: 0-2. Jesper Lindstrom scored it. 51' — NK Celje pulled one back: 1-2. Blaz Kramer scored it. 90' — NK Celje equalised: 2-2. Armandas Kucys scored it. It came in the closing minutes. The match ended 2-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
NK CeljeDrawRed Bull Salzburg
Pre-match model estimate: NK Celje 17%, draw 20%, Red Bull Salzburg 63%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): NK Celje win in 17% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and Red Bull Salzburg win 63%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 0-2 (10%); both teams score in 53%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
NK Celje – Red Bull Salzburg match report
Updated:
NK Celje and Red Bull Salzburg shared the points in a 2-2 draw in the UEFA Europa League. It was 0-1 at half-time.
How the match unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg took the lead on 9 minutes thanks to Sota Kitano, set up by Damir Redzic. It was NK Celje 0-1 Red Bull Salzburg at half-time.
Red Bull Salzburg extended their lead to 2-0 on 46 minutes thanks to Jesper Lindstrom, set up by Damir Redzic. NK Celje pulled one back to make it 1-2 in the 51st minute: Blaz Kramer. A Red Bull Salzburg goal stood after a VAR check in the 61st minute. The officials disallowed a Red Bull Salzburg goal on 72 minutes. NK Celje drew level at 2-2 in the 90th minute: Armandas Kucys, set up by Yaya Dukuly.
The statistics
On target it was 3-6, from 4 and 7 attempts respectively.
What it means
NK Celje climb from 35th to 29th on 1 point. Red Bull Salzburg remain 21st, now with 4 points.
