Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Newcastle United U21 won 3-2.
Story
Newcastle United U21 vs Sunderland U21: the story of the match
Newcastle United U21 started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 37' — Sunderland U21 took the lead: 0-1. Half time: 0-1.
58' — Newcastle United U21 equalised: 1-1. 63' — Sunderland U21 went back in front: 1-2. 70' — Newcastle United U21 equalised: 2-2. 85' — Newcastle United U21 completed the turnaround: 3-2. It came in the closing minutes. After 76' the momentum swung to Newcastle United U21. After 91' the momentum swung to Sunderland U21. Newcastle United U21 won 3-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Newcastle United U21DrawSunderland U21
Pre-match model estimate: Newcastle United U21 32%, draw 21%, Sunderland U21 47%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Newcastle United U21Sunderland U21
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min2258
Last 15 min4637
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Newcastle United U21 win in 32% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Sunderland U21 win 47%. Average goals 3.8; the most likely score is 1-2 (9%); both teams score in 72%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Newcastle United U21 – Sunderland U21 match report
Newcastle United U21 started on the front foot, pressing for the first 15 minutes. Sunderland U21 took the lead on 37 minutes. Half-time: 0-1, Sunderland U21 in front.
Newcastle United U21 drew level at 1-1 on 58 minutes. Just 5 minutes later (63') Sunderland U21 went 2-1 up. Newcastle United U21 drew level at 2-2 on 70 minutes. From the 76th minute the pressure shifted towards Newcastle United U21. Late on, in the 85th minute, Newcastle United U21 completed the turnaround at 3-2.
Sunderland U21 took over after the 91st minute, pinning Newcastle United U21 back.
Match statistics
On target it was 7-4, from 10 and 7 attempts respectively. Corners finished 4-3.
The bigger picture
Newcastle United U21 have now scored in 5 consecutive matches. The wait for a win goes on for Sunderland U21: 4 matches now.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
