Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: 1-1.
Story
Neftchi PFK Baku vs Turan Tovuz IK: the story of the match
1' — Neftchi PFK Baku had a player sent off. 2' — Neftchi PFK Baku took the lead: 1-0. Half time: 1-0.
73' — Turan Tovuz IK equalised: 1-1. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Neftchi PFK BakuDrawTuran Tovuz IK
Pre-match model estimate: Neftchi PFK Baku 54%, draw 24%, Turan Tovuz IK 22%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Neftchi PFK Baku win in 54% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Turan Tovuz IK win 22%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-0 (12%); both teams score in 50%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Neftchi PFK Baku were a man down from the 1st minute. Just 1 minutes later (2') Neftchi PFK Baku took the lead. It was Neftchi PFK Baku 1-0 Turan Tovuz IK at half-time.
Turan Tovuz IK drew level at 1-1 on 73 minutes.
The statistics
Neftchi PFK Baku won 2 corners, Turan Tovuz IK 8.
What it means
Neftchi PFK Baku stay 2nd on 18 points. Turan Tovuz IK remain 4th, now with 15 points. Neftchi PFK Baku extend their unbeaten run to 6 matches. Across 11 meetings in our records: 3 wins for Neftchi PFK Baku, 2 wins for Turan Tovuz IK and 6 draws.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
