Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
MOIK Baku beat Karvan FK 3-1 in 1. Division.
In our records MOIK Baku and Karvan FK have met 6 times: MOIK Baku won 1, 1 ended level and Karvan FK won 4.
Their latest meeting (): MOIK Baku 1-1 Karvan FK.
Match decisions & VAR
62'Penalty awardedMOIK BakuDecision
81'Penalty awardedMOIK BakuDecision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: MOIK Baku won 3-1.
Story
MOIK Baku vs Karvan FK: the story of the match
3' — Karvan FK took the lead: 0-1. Half time: 0-1.
62' — MOIK Baku equalised: 1-1. 74' — MOIK Baku completed the turnaround: 2-1. 82' — MOIK Baku extended the lead: 3-1. MOIK Baku won 3-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
MOIK BakuDrawKarvan FK
Pre-match model estimate: MOIK Baku 43%, draw 27%, Karvan FK 30%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): MOIK Baku win in 43% of the simulated matches, 27% end level and Karvan FK win 30%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 50%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Karvan FK took the lead on 3 minutes. Half-time: 0-1, Karvan FK in front.
MOIK Baku drew level at 1-1 on 62 minutes. MOIK Baku completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 74 minutes. MOIK Baku extended their lead to 3-1 on 82 minutes.
The statistics
MOIK Baku won 7 corners, Karvan FK 2.
The bigger picture
The result lifts MOIK Baku to 3rd with 13 points, up from 4th. Karvan FK drop from 5th to 6th on 7 points. MOIK Baku have now won 4 in a row. MOIK Baku ended Karvan FK's unbeaten run of 3 matches. It is MOIK Baku's first win against Karvan FK since 2023.
Next fixtures
Next up for MOIK Baku: home to Shahdagh Qusar FK on Wednesday 28 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
