37'Goal disallowedManchester City U21Decision · Score 0-0
64'Penalty awardedStoke City U21Decision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Manchester City U21 won 4-3.
Story
Manchester City U21 vs Stoke City U21: the story of the match
Half time: 0-0.
49' — Stoke City U21 took the lead: 0-1. 61' — Stoke City U21 extended the lead: 0-2. 65' — Stoke City U21 extended the lead: 0-3. 75' — Manchester City U21 pulled one back: 1-3. 80' — Manchester City U21 pulled one back: 2-3. 90' — Manchester City U21 equalised: 3-3. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — Manchester City U21 completed the turnaround: 4-3. It came in the closing minutes. Manchester City U21 won 4-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Manchester City U21DrawStoke City U21
Pre-match model estimate: Manchester City U21 83%, draw 11%, Stoke City U21 6%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Manchester City U21 win in 83% of the simulated matches, 11% end level and Stoke City U21 win 6%. Average goals 4.3; the most likely score is 3-0 (9%); both teams score in 58%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Manchester City U21 had a goal ruled out in the 37th minute. It was Manchester City U21 0-0 Stoke City U21 at half-time.
Stoke City U21 took the lead on 49 minutes. Stoke City U21 extended their lead to 2-0 on 61 minutes. Stoke City U21 extended their lead to 3-0 on 65 minutes. Manchester City U21 pulled one back to make it 1-3 on 75 minutes. Just 5 minutes later (80') Manchester City U21 pulled one back to make it 2-3.
Late on, in the 90th minute, Manchester City U21 drew level at 3-3. Late on, in the 90th minute, Manchester City U21 completed the turnaround at 4-3.
What the numbers say
Manchester City U21 had 9 shots (8 on target) to Stoke City U21's 3 (3). Corners finished 9-1. Manchester City U21 produced 59 dangerous attacks to Stoke City U21's 20.
What it means
Manchester City U21 end a run of 3 straight defeats. Stoke City U21 have now gone 6 matches without a win.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
