Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
Mamelodi Sundowns beat Marumo Gallants FC 1-0 in Knockout Cup.
Venue: Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium.
Match decisions & VAR
No verified referee decision in this match.
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Mamelodi Sundowns won 1-0.
Story
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Marumo Gallants FC: the story of the match
Mamelodi Sundowns started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 20' — Mamelodi Sundowns took the lead: 1-0. Half time: 1-0.
After 46' the momentum swung to Mamelodi Sundowns. After 61' the momentum swung to Marumo Gallants FC. Mamelodi Sundowns won 1-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Mamelodi SundownsDrawMarumo Gallants FC
Pre-match model estimate: Mamelodi Sundowns 77%, draw 16%, Marumo Gallants FC 7%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
Mamelodi SundownsMarumo Gallants FC
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min2246
Last 15 min3153
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Mamelodi Sundowns win in 77% of the simulated matches, 16% end level and Marumo Gallants FC win 7%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 2-0 (15%); both teams score in 41%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Mamelodi Sundowns – Marumo Gallants FC match report
The early pressure came from Mamelodi Sundowns, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Mamelodi Sundowns took the lead on 20 minutes. Mamelodi Sundowns led 1-0 at the break.
Mamelodi Sundowns took over after the 46th minute, pinning Marumo Gallants FC back. From the 61st minute the pressure shifted towards Marumo Gallants FC.
Match statistics
Mamelodi Sundowns won 3 corners, Marumo Gallants FC 3. 6 saves came from the Mamelodi Sundowns goalkeeper. Mamelodi Sundowns produced 86 dangerous attacks to Marumo Gallants FC's 69.
What it means
Mamelodi Sundowns extend their unbeaten run to 12 matches. It is now 4 straight defeats for Marumo Gallants FC.
What’s next
Next up for Mamelodi Sundowns: home to Durban City FC on Saturday 31 October. Marumo Gallants FC's next match is at home against Siwelele FC on 30 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Knockout Cup
