Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa: the story of the match
42' — Botev Vratsa took the lead: 0-1. J. Gallegos scored it. Half time: 0-1.
55' — Lokomotiv Sofia equalised: 1-1. A. Aralica scored it. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Lokomotiv SofiaDrawBotev Vratsa
Pre-match model estimate: Lokomotiv Sofia 49%, draw 25%, Botev Vratsa 26%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Lokomotiv Sofia win in 49% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Botev Vratsa win 26%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 53%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Botev Vratsa took the lead on 42 minutes thanks to J. Gallegos. It was Lokomotiv Sofia 0-1 Botev Vratsa at half-time.
Lokomotiv Sofia drew level at 1-1 on 55 minutes thanks to A. Aralica, set up by S. Delev. Lokomotiv Sofia had a goal ruled out in the 83rd minute.
What the numbers say
On target it was 4-4, from 5 and 6 attempts respectively. Lokomotiv Sofia won 5 corners, Botev Vratsa 3. Lokomotiv Sofia produced 52 dangerous attacks to Botev Vratsa's 32.
What it means
Lokomotiv Sofia drop from 10th to 11th on 9 points. Botev Vratsa slip to 10th (10 points), having started the day 9th. Lokomotiv Sofia extend their unbeaten run to 4 matches. Across 11 meetings in our records: 4 wins for Lokomotiv Sofia, 4 wins for Botev Vratsa and 3 draws.
What’s next
Lokomotiv Sofia's next match is at home against Botev Plovdiv on 30 October. Botev Vratsa visit Cherno More Varna next, on 2 November in the First League.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
First League
