LKP Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin: the story of the match
45' — Zaglebie Lubin took the lead: 0-1. S. Kerk scored it. Half time: 0-1.
48' — Zaglebie Lubin extended the lead: 0-2. M. Reguła scored it. 75' — LKP Motor Lublin pulled one back: 1-2. M. Łęgowski scored it. 87' — LKP Motor Lublin equalised: 2-2. M. Ndiaye scored it. It came in the closing minutes. The match ended 2-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
LKP Motor LublinDrawZaglebie Lubin
Pre-match model estimate: LKP Motor Lublin 51%, draw 24%, Zaglebie Lubin 25%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): LKP Motor Lublin win in 51% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Zaglebie Lubin win 25%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 57%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
S. Kerk opened the scoring for Zaglebie Lubin after 45 minutes. Zaglebie Lubin led 1-0 at the break.
Just 3 minutes later (48') Zaglebie Lubin extended their lead to 2-0, M. Reguła on target, set up by M. Nalepa. LKP Motor Lublin pulled one back to make it 1-2 on 75 minutes thanks to M. Łęgowski. Late on, in the 87th minute, LKP Motor Lublin drew level at 2-2 through M. Ndiaye.
The statistics
On target it was 4-0, from 7 and 0 attempts respectively. Corners finished 7-2. Dangerous attacks: 137 for LKP Motor Lublin, 74 for Zaglebie Lubin.
The bigger picture
LKP Motor Lublin remain 12th, now with 13 points. Zaglebie Lubin stay 7th on 19 points. LKP Motor Lublin are now unbeaten in 4 matches. Across 7 meetings in our records: 3 wins for LKP Motor Lublin, 2 wins for Zaglebie Lubin and 2 draws.
What’s next
LKP Motor Lublin's next match is away to KS Cracovia on 30 October. Zaglebie Lubin host Korona Kielce next, on 2 November in Ekstraklasa.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Ekstraklasa
