Legia Warsaw vs KKS Lech Poznan: the story of the match
Half time: 0-0.
57' — KKS Lech Poznan took the lead: 0-1. Y. Agnero scored it. 75' — Legia Warsaw equalised: 1-1. 87' — KKS Lech Poznan went back in front: 1-2. L. Palma scored it. It came in the closing minutes. KKS Lech Poznan won 1-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Legia WarsawDrawKKS Lech Poznan
Pre-match model estimate: Legia Warsaw 36%, draw 25%, KKS Lech Poznan 39%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Legia Warsaw win in 36% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and KKS Lech Poznan win 39%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 59%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 3.9 yellow cards on average; a red card in 13%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Half-time: 0-0 between Legia Warsaw and KKS Lech Poznan.
KKS Lech Poznan took the lead on 57 minutes thanks to Y. Agnero. Legia Warsaw drew level at 1-1 on 75 minutes. KKS Lech Poznan went 2-1 up in the 87th minute: L. Palma, set up by D. Håkans.
Match statistics
Legia Warsaw had 14 shots (9 on target) to KKS Lech Poznan's 7 (5). Legia Warsaw won 9 corners, KKS Lech Poznan 5. Legia Warsaw produced 78 dangerous attacks to KKS Lech Poznan's 54.
What the result means
Legia Warsaw drop from 3rd to 4th on 23 points. The result lifts KKS Lech Poznan to 1st with 28 points, up from 2nd. KKS Lech Poznan ended Legia Warsaw's unbeaten run of 6 matches.
Ekstraklasa
