Lecco vs US Folgore Caratese: the story of the match
25' — Lecco took the lead: 1-0. A. Capello scored it. 29' — US Folgore Caratese equalised: 1-1. F. Cassata scored it. Half time: 1-1.
59' — US Folgore Caratese completed the turnaround: 1-2. K. Mezsargs scored it. 80' — Lecco equalised: 2-2. M. Rizzo scored it. The match ended 2-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
LeccoDrawUS Folgore Caratese
Pre-match model estimate: Lecco 53%, draw 26%, US Folgore Caratese 21%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Lecco win in 53% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and US Folgore Caratese win 21%. Average goals 2.4; the most likely score is 1-0 (14%); both teams score in 45%. About 9.4 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Lecco took the lead on 25 minutes thanks to A. Capello, set up by M. Casarotto. US Folgore Caratese drew level at 1-1 in the 29th minute: F. Cassata. The first half ended 1-1.
K. Mezsargs turned the game around for US Folgore Caratese at 2-1 after 59 minutes. Lecco drew level at 2-2 in the 80th minute: M. Rizzo.
Match statistics
On target it was 4-3, from 6 and 6 attempts respectively. Corners finished 5-3. Dangerous attacks: 142 for Lecco, 69 for US Folgore Caratese.
The bigger picture
Lecco are now unbeaten in 4 matches. 3 defeats in a row come to an end for US Folgore Caratese. Across 7 meetings in our records: 5 wins for Lecco and 2 draws.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Serie C, Group B
