16' — Krasnodar took the lead: 1-0. Jhon Córdoba scored it. 35' — CSKA Moscow equalised: 1-1. Matvey Kislyak scored it. 41' — Krasnodar went back in front: 2-1. Batxi scored it. Half time: 2-1.
74' — Krasnodar extended the lead: 3-1. Daniil Utkin scored it. 82' — Krasnodar extended the lead: 4-1. Jhon Córdoba scored it. 90' — CSKA Moscow pulled one back: 4-2. Kirill Glebov scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Krasnodar won 4-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
KrasnodarDrawCSKA Moscow
Pre-match model estimate: Krasnodar 43%, draw 24%, CSKA Moscow 33%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Krasnodar win in 43% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and CSKA Moscow win 33%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 59%. About 8.9 corners on average. About 4.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Jhon Córdoba opened the scoring for Krasnodar after 16 minutes. Matvey Kislyak equalised for CSKA Moscow at 1-1 after 35 minutes. Krasnodar went 2-1 up in the 41st minute: Batxi. Half-time: 2-1, Krasnodar in front.
Krasnodar extended their lead to 3-1 on 74 minutes thanks to Daniil Utkin. Krasnodar extended their lead to 4-1 in the 82nd minute: Jhon Córdoba. CSKA Moscow pulled one back to make it 4-2 on 90 minutes thanks to Kirill Glebov.
The statistics
Krasnodar had 14 shots (6 on target) to CSKA Moscow's 18 (6). Corners finished 2-7. Krasnodar's goalkeeper made 6 saves. Dangerous attacks: 196 for CSKA Moscow, 130 for Krasnodar.
What the result means
Krasnodar climb from 5th to 4th on 26 points. CSKA Moscow slip to 5th (26 points), having started the day 3rd. Krasnodar have now scored in 5 consecutive matches. CSKA Moscow's 3-match unbeaten run is over.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Premier League
