This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): KFC Merelbeke win in 19% of the simulated matches, 20% end level and KSK Heist win 61%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 1-2 (10%); both teams score in 59%. About 9.3 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
KFC Merelbeke took the lead on 9 minutes. It was KFC Merelbeke 1-0 KSK Heist at half-time.
KFC Merelbeke had a goal ruled out in the 48th minute. Just 4 minutes later (52') KSK Heist drew level at 1-1. KFC Merelbeke went 2-1 up on 65 minutes.
The statistics
KFC Merelbeke won 7 corners, KSK Heist 9.
The bigger picture
The result ends KSK Heist's run of 3 straight wins.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
