28' — Besiktas took the lead: 0-1. Leandro Trossard scored it. Half time: 0-1.
47' — Besiktas extended the lead: 0-2. Dusan Vlahovic scored it. 60' — Kasimpasa pulled one back: 1-2. Cláudio Winck scored it. 87' — Kasimpasa equalised: 2-2. Marcus Rafferty scored it. It came in the closing minutes. The match ended 2-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
KasimpasaDrawBesiktas
Pre-match model estimate: Kasimpasa 20%, draw 21%, Besiktas 59%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Kasimpasa win in 20% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Besiktas win 59%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 1-2 (11%); both teams score in 57%. About 10.1 corners on average. About 4.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 19%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Neither Kasimpasa nor Besiktas could find a winner in a 2-2 draw. The half-time score was 0-1.
How the match unfolded
Besiktas took the lead in the 28th minute: Leandro Trossard. Half-time: 0-1, Besiktas in front.
Besiktas extended their lead to 2-0 in the 47th minute: Dusan Vlahovic. Cláudio Winck reduced the deficit for Kasimpasa to 1-2 after 60 minutes. Kasimpasa had a goal ruled out in the 80th minute. Kasimpasa drew level at 2-2 on 87 minutes thanks to Marcus Rafferty.
Match statistics
The shot count read 16-8, 8-5 on target. Kasimpasa won 5 corners, Besiktas 2. Besiktas produced 74 dangerous attacks to Kasimpasa's 52.
The bigger picture
The result ends Kasimpasa's run of 3 straight wins. Across 11 meetings in our records: 4 wins for Kasimpasa, 3 wins for Besiktas and 4 draws.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Super Lig
