Kapfenberger SV vs SKN St. Polten: the story of the match
15' — Kapfenberger SV took the lead: 1-0. Marcel Stoger scored it. Half time: 1-0.
60' — SKN St. Polten equalised: 1-1. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Kapfenberger SVDrawSKN St. Polten
Pre-match model estimate: Kapfenberger SV 16%, draw 18%, SKN St. Polten 66%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Kapfenberger SV win in 16% of the simulated matches, 18% end level and SKN St. Polten win 66%. Average goals 3.5; the most likely score is 1-2 (9%); both teams score in 60%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Kapfenberger SV took the lead on 15 minutes thanks to Marcel Stoger. Half-time: 1-0, Kapfenberger SV in front.
SKN St. Polten drew level at 1-1 on 60 minutes.
The statistics
Kapfenberger SV won 4 corners, SKN St. Polten 11.
What it means
The result lifts Kapfenberger SV to 15th with 7 points, up from 16th. SKN St. Polten drop from 11th to 12th on 11 points. Across 11 meetings in our records: 3 wins for Kapfenberger SV, 7 wins for SKN St. Polten and 1 draw.
2. Liga
