Hertha vs Arminia Bielefeld: the story of the match
Half time: 0-0.
90' — Hertha took the lead: 1-0. Josip Brekalo scored from the penalty spot. It came in the closing minutes. Hertha won 1-0. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
HerthaDrawArminia Bielefeld
Pre-match model estimate: Hertha 55%, draw 21%, Arminia Bielefeld 24%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Hertha win in 55% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Arminia Bielefeld win 24%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 62%. About 10.1 corners on average.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Hertha had a goal ruled out in the 86th minute after a VAR review. Hertha took the lead in the 90th minute: Josip Brekalo from the penalty spot.
Match statistics
On target it was 3-1, from 6 and 4 attempts respectively. Hertha won 4 corners, Arminia Bielefeld 2. Hertha produced 227 dangerous attacks to Arminia Bielefeld's 97.
What it means
Hertha stay 1st on 25 points. Arminia Bielefeld drop from 8th to 9th on 11 points. Hertha extend their unbeaten run to 12 matches. Hertha ended Arminia Bielefeld's unbeaten run of 4 matches.
2. Bundesliga
