21'Review overGimnastic de TarragonaVAR review · incidentDecision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Gimnastic de Tarragona won 4-2.
Story
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Hercules CF: the story of the match
14' — Hercules CF took the lead: 0-1. 17' — Gimnastic de Tarragona equalised: 1-1. 22' — Gimnastic de Tarragona completed the turnaround: 2-1. 26' — Gimnastic de Tarragona extended the lead: 3-1. 33' — Gimnastic de Tarragona extended the lead: 4-1. Half time: 4-1.
62' — Hercules CF pulled one back: 4-2. Gimnastic de Tarragona won 4-2.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Gimnastic de TarragonaDrawHercules CF
Pre-match model estimate: Gimnastic de Tarragona 38%, draw 28%, Hercules CF 34%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Gimnastic de Tarragona win in 38% of the simulated matches, 28% end level and Hercules CF win 34%. Average goals 2.3; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 46%. About 9.6 corners on average. About 5.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 27%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Hercules CF took the lead on 14 minutes. Just 3 minutes later (17') Gimnastic de Tarragona drew level at 1-1. Just 5 minutes later (22') Gimnastic de Tarragona completed the turnaround at 2-1. Gimnastic de Tarragona extended their lead to 3-1 on 26 minutes. Gimnastic de Tarragona extended their lead to 4-1 on 33 minutes.
Gimnastic de Tarragona led 4-1 at the break.
Hercules CF pulled one back to make it 4-2 on 62 minutes.
What the numbers say
On target it was 3-4, from 3 and 6 attempts respectively. Gimnastic de Tarragona won 3 corners, Hercules CF 9. Hercules CF produced 347 dangerous attacks to Gimnastic de Tarragona's 109.
The bigger picture
It is Gimnastic de Tarragona's first win against Hercules CF since 2015.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
