Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
GD Alcochetense beat FC Serpa 3-1 in Campeonato de Portugal.
Match decisions & VAR
54'Penalty awardedGD AlcochetenseDecision
74'Penalty awardedGD AlcochetenseDecision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: GD Alcochetense won 3-1.
Story
GD Alcochetense vs FC Serpa: the story of the match
Half time: 0-0.
49' — GD Alcochetense took the lead: 1-0. 55' — GD Alcochetense extended the lead: 2-0. 68' — FC Serpa pulled one back: 2-1. 75' — GD Alcochetense extended the lead: 3-1. GD Alcochetense won 3-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
GD AlcochetenseDrawFC Serpa
Pre-match model estimate: GD Alcochetense 56%, draw 25%, FC Serpa 19%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): GD Alcochetense win in 56% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and FC Serpa win 19%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 1-0 (14%); both teams score in 45%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
GD Alcochetense took the lead on 49 minutes. Just 6 minutes later (55') GD Alcochetense extended their lead to 2-0. FC Serpa pulled one back to make it 2-1 on 68 minutes. GD Alcochetense extended their lead to 3-1 on 75 minutes.
Match statistics
Corners finished 4-4.
What the result means
The wait for a win goes on for FC Serpa: 4 matches now.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
