Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK: the story of the match
Half time: 0-0.
52' — Erzurumspor FK took the lead: 0-1. Miguel Cardoso scored it. 64' — Erzurumspor FK extended the lead: 0-2. Amar Gerxhaliu scored it. 70' — Gaziantep FK pulled one back: 1-2. An own goal by Orhan Ovacikli. 90' — Erzurumspor FK extended the lead: 1-3. It came in the closing minutes. Erzurumspor FK won 1-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Gaziantep FKDrawErzurumspor FK
Pre-match model estimate: Gaziantep FK 47%, draw 29%, Erzurumspor FK 24%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Gaziantep FK win in 47% of the simulated matches, 29% end level and Erzurumspor FK win 24%. Average goals 2.1; the most likely score is 1-0 (16%); both teams score in 40%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Half-time: 0-0 between Gaziantep FK and Erzurumspor FK.
Erzurumspor FK took the lead on 52 minutes thanks to Miguel Cardoso. Erzurumspor FK extended their lead to 2-0 on 64 minutes thanks to Amar Gerxhaliu. Gaziantep FK pulled one back to make it 1-2 on 70 minutes thanks to an own goal from Orhan Ovacikli. Erzurumspor FK extended their lead to 3-1 on 90 minutes.
Match statistics
Gaziantep FK had 8 shots (5 on target) to Erzurumspor FK's 4 (3). Gaziantep FK won 5 corners, Erzurumspor FK 2. Gaziantep FK produced 52 dangerous attacks to Erzurumspor FK's 34.
The bigger picture
Gaziantep FK drop from 14th to 15th on 8 points. The result lifts Erzurumspor FK to 8th with 14 points, up from 11th. It is now 4 straight defeats for Gaziantep FK. Erzurumspor FK's run of 3 clean sheets is over. It is Erzurumspor FK's first win against Gaziantep FK since 2021.
Next fixtures
Gaziantep FK's next match is away to Trabzonspor on 1 November. Erzurumspor FK host Corum FK next, on 31 October in the Super Lig.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Super Lig
