17' — Bayern Munich took the lead: 0-1. Dayot Upamecano scored it. 43' — Bayern Munich extended the lead: 0-2. Serge Gnabry scored it. Half time: 0-2.
82' — Freiburg pulled one back: 1-2. An own goal by Tom Bischof. 95' — Bayern Munich extended the lead: 1-3. Michael Olise scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Bayern Munich won 1-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FreiburgDrawBayern Munich
Pre-match model estimate: Freiburg 24%, draw 18%, Bayern Munich 58%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Freiburg win in 24% of the simulated matches, 18% end level and Bayern Munich win 58%. Average goals 4.4; the most likely score is 1-2 (8%); both teams score in 76%. About 10.4 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 19%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Bayern Munich took the lead on 17 minutes thanks to Dayot Upamecano. Serge Gnabry made it 2-0 for Bayern Munich after 43 minutes. It was Freiburg 0-2 Bayern Munich at half-time.
Freiburg pulled one back to make it 1-2 in the 82nd minute: an own goal from Tom Bischof. Bayern Munich had a goal ruled out in the 89th minute. Just 6 minutes later (95') Bayern Munich extended their lead to 3-1, Michael Olise on target.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 14-12, 8-11 on target. Freiburg won 5 corners, Bayern Munich 6. Bayern Munich produced 54 dangerous attacks to Freiburg's 39.
What the result means
Freiburg stay 3rd on 13 points. Bayern Munich remain 1st, now with 17 points. Bayern Munich extend their unbeaten run to 12 matches.
What’s next
Freiburg's next match is at home against VfL Wolfsburg on 28 October. Bayern Munich host 1.FC Magdeburg next, on 28 October.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Bundesliga
