Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
FK Macva Sabac beat Napredak Krusevac 2-0 in Serbian Cup.
In our records FK Macva Sabac and Napredak Krusevac have met 8 times: FK Macva Sabac won 2, 0 ended level and Napredak Krusevac won 6.
Their latest meeting (): Napredak Krusevac 2-0 FK Macva Sabac.
Match decisions & VAR
28'Red cardNapredak KrusevacDecision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: FK Macva Sabac won 2-0.
Story
FK Macva Sabac vs Napredak Krusevac: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 9' — FK Macva Sabac took the lead: 1-0. 28' — Napredak Krusevac had a player sent off. Half time: 1-0.
75' — FK Macva Sabac extended the lead: 2-0. FK Macva Sabac won 2-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FK Macva SabacDrawNapredak Krusevac
Pre-match model estimate: FK Macva Sabac 57%, draw 26%, Napredak Krusevac 17%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
FK Macva SabacNapredak Krusevac
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min2212
Last 15 min2531
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FK Macva Sabac win in 57% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and Napredak Krusevac win 17%. Average goals 2.2; the most likely score is 1-0 (17%); both teams score in 39%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
FK Macva Sabac took the lead on 9 minutes. Napredak Krusevac were a man down from the 28th minute. Half-time: 1-0, FK Macva Sabac in front.
FK Macva Sabac extended their lead to 2-0 on 75 minutes.
What the numbers say
FK Macva Sabac won 5 corners, Napredak Krusevac 3.
What the result means
FK Macva Sabac end a run of 7 matches without a win. FK Macva Sabac ended Napredak Krusevac's unbeaten run of 5 matches. It is FK Macva Sabac's first win against Napredak Krusevac since 2018.
Serbian Cup
