Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
FC Vizela U23 beat FC Penafiel U23 3-2 in U23 Liga Next Gen.
Match decisions & VAR
26'Penalty awardedFC Penafiel U23Decision
37'Penalty awardedFC Vizela U23Decision
46'Penalty awardedFC Vizela U23Decision
83'Penalty awardedFC Vizela U23Decision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: FC Vizela U23 won 2-3.
Story
FC Penafiel U23 vs FC Vizela U23: the story of the match
FC Penafiel U23 started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 27' — FC Penafiel U23 took the lead: 1-0. 31' — FC Penafiel U23 extended the lead: 2-0. 45' — FC Vizela U23 pulled one back: 2-1. Half time: 2-1, with FC Penafiel U23 applying more of the pressure.
61' — FC Vizela U23 equalised: 2-2. 84' — FC Vizela U23 completed the turnaround: 2-3. After 61' the momentum swung to FC Vizela U23. After 91' the momentum swung to FC Penafiel U23. FC Vizela U23 won 2-3.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC Penafiel U23DrawFC Vizela U23
Pre-match model estimate: FC Penafiel U23 45%, draw 24%, FC Vizela U23 31%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
FC Penafiel U23FC Vizela U23
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min890
Last 15 min6312
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Penafiel U23 win in 45% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and FC Vizela U23 win 31%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 58%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The early pressure came from FC Penafiel U23, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. FC Penafiel U23 took the lead on 27 minutes. FC Penafiel U23 extended their lead to 2-0 on 31 minutes. FC Vizela U23 pulled one back to make it 2-1 on 45 minutes. Half-time: 2-1, FC Penafiel U23 in front.
FC Vizela U23 drew level at 2-2 on 61 minutes. FC Vizela U23 took over after the 61st minute, pinning FC Penafiel U23 back. FC Vizela U23 completed the turnaround at 3-2 on 84 minutes. From the 91st minute the pressure shifted towards FC Penafiel U23.
What the numbers say
On target it was 2-3, from 4 and 4 attempts respectively. FC Penafiel U23 won 7 corners, FC Vizela U23 5.
What the result means
FC Penafiel U23 drop from 15th to 16th on 9 points. The result lifts FC Vizela U23 to 6th with 16 points, up from 8th.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
