Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
FC Lugano II and AC Bellinzona drew 1-1 in Promotion League.
Match decisions & VAR
88'Penalty awardedAC BellinzonaDecision
Goal disallowedAC BellinzonaDecision · Score 1-1
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: 1-1.
Story
FC Lugano II vs AC Bellinzona: the story of the match
38' — FC Lugano II took the lead: 1-0. Half time: 1-0.
90' — AC Bellinzona equalised: 1-1. It came in the closing minutes. The match ended 1-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC Lugano IIDrawAC Bellinzona
Pre-match model estimate: FC Lugano II 36%, draw 24%, AC Bellinzona 40%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Lugano II win in 36% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and AC Bellinzona win 40%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 62%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
