54' — CS Emelec took the lead: 0-1. Teodoro Arce scored it. CS Emelec won 0-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC LibertadDrawCS Emelec
Pre-match model estimate: FC Libertad 51%, draw 24%, CS Emelec 25%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Libertad win in 51% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and CS Emelec win 25%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 56%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 23%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
CS Emelec took the lead on 54 minutes thanks to Teodoro Arce. The officials disallowed a CS Emelec goal on 65 minutes. CS Emelec had a goal ruled out in the 72nd minute.
What the numbers say
Corners finished 5-3.
What it means
FC Libertad move on to 41 points. The result takes CS Emelec to 42 points.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Serie A, Relegation Round
