Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datamatch statistics
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: FC Koper won 4-0.
Story
FC Koper vs NK Maribor: the story of the match
Neither side took control in the first 15 minutes. 45' — FC Koper took the lead: 1-0. Half time: 1-0, with FC Koper applying more of the pressure.
52' — NK Maribor had a player sent off. 55' — FC Koper extended the lead: 2-0. 67' — FC Koper extended the lead: 3-0. 76' — FC Koper had a player sent off. 89' — FC Koper extended the lead: 4-0. It came in the closing minutes. FC Koper won 4-0. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC KoperDrawNK Maribor
Pre-match model estimate: FC Koper 37%, draw 24%, NK Maribor 39%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
FC KoperNK Maribor
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min5312
Last 15 min3442
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Koper win in 37% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and NK Maribor win 39%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 59%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
VAR disallowed a NK Maribor goal on 13 minutes. FC Koper took the lead on 45 minutes. It was FC Koper 1-0 NK Maribor at half-time; FC Koper had the better of the pressure.
NK Maribor were a man down from the 52nd minute. Just 3 minutes later (55') FC Koper extended their lead to 2-0. FC Koper extended their lead to 3-0 on 67 minutes. FC Koper had a player sent off on 76 minutes. Late on, in the 89th minute, FC Koper extended their lead to 4-0.
What the numbers say
FC Koper had 11 shots (8 on target) to NK Maribor's 6 (2). Corners finished 2-5.
The bigger picture
FC Koper climb from 2nd to 1st on 25 points. NK Maribor slip to 2nd (24 points), having started the day 1st. NK Maribor's 3-match unbeaten run is over.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
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