FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC: the story of the match
FC Cincinnati started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. Half time: 0-0, with FC Cincinnati applying more of the pressure.
62' — Nashville SC took the lead: 0-1. Sam Surridge scored it. 86' — Nashville SC extended the lead: 0-2. Sam Surridge scored it. It came in the closing minutes. After 46' the momentum swung to Nashville SC. After 61' the momentum swung to FC Cincinnati. Nashville SC won 0-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC CincinnatiDrawNashville SC
Pre-match model estimate: FC Cincinnati 35%, draw 23%, Nashville SC 42%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
FC CincinnatiNashville SC
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min9239
Last 15 min8353
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Cincinnati win in 35% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and Nashville SC win 42%. Average goals 3.2; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 64%. About 10.2 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The early pressure came from FC Cincinnati, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. Half-time: 0-0 between FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC.
Nashville SC took over after the 46th minute, pinning FC Cincinnati back. From the 61st minute the pressure shifted towards FC Cincinnati. Nashville SC took the lead on 62 minutes thanks to Sam Surridge. Nashville SC extended their lead to 2-0 in the 86th minute: Sam Surridge, set up by Patrick Yazbek.
What the numbers say
FC Cincinnati had 8 shots (5 on target) to Nashville SC's 9 (5). FC Cincinnati won 6 corners, Nashville SC 2. 5 saves came from the Nashville SC goalkeeper. FC Cincinnati produced 127 dangerous attacks to Nashville SC's 86.
The bigger picture
FC Cincinnati drop from 7th to 9th on 46 points. Nashville SC stay 1st on 77 points. Nashville SC ended FC Cincinnati's unbeaten run of 4 matches. Nashville SC extend their unbeaten run to 10 matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
