36' — Casa Pia AC took the lead: 0-1. Silvi Clua scored it. Half time: 0-1.
66' — FC Alverca equalised: 1-1. Ian Luccas scored it. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC AlvercaDrawCasa Pia AC
Pre-match model estimate: FC Alverca 54%, draw 25%, Casa Pia AC 21%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Alverca win in 54% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Casa Pia AC win 21%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-0 (12%); both teams score in 49%. About 9.3 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
FC Alverca and Casa Pia AC shared the points in a 1-1 draw in Liga Portugal. It was 0-1 at half-time.
Key moments
The officials disallowed a FC Alverca goal on 12 minutes. Silvi Clua opened the scoring for Casa Pia AC after 36 minutes, set up by Henrique Araújo. Casa Pia AC led 1-0 at the break.
Ian Luccas equalised for FC Alverca at 1-1 after 66 minutes, set up by Chiquinho.
The statistics
On target it was 4-3, from 9 and 9 attempts respectively. Corners finished 9-2. Casa Pia AC's goalkeeper made 6 saves. Dangerous attacks: 180 for FC Alverca, 146 for Casa Pia AC.
The bigger picture
FC Alverca slip to 11th (12 points), having started the day 10th. Casa Pia AC climb from 17th to 16th on 8 points. 3 defeats in a row come to an end for FC Alverca. Across 3 meetings in our records: 2 wins for FC Alverca and 1 draw.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
